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A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that conta
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 A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that conta

A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that contains analysis and projections of the integral elements of the IMF鈥檚 surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries Nike Shox Shoes Clearance , and of the developments in the global financial markets and economic system. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is usually prepared twice a year and is used in meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018
January 2018


Brighter Prospects, Optimistic Markets, Challenges Ahead
Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and 陆 percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent. The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes.
The U.S. tax policy changes are expected to stimulate activity, with the short-term impact in the United States mostly driven by the investment response to the corporate income tax cuts. The effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario. Due to the temporary nature of some of its provisions, the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onwards. The effects of the package on output in the United States and its trading partners contribute about half of the cumulative revision to global growth over 2018鈥?9.
Risks to the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, but remain skewed to the downside over the medium term. On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other. On the downside, rich asset valuations and very compressed term premiums raise the possibility of a financial market correction, which could dampen growth and confidence. A possible trigger is a faster-than-expected increase in advanced economy core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates. If global sentiment remains strong and inflation muted, then financial conditions could remain loose into the medium term, leading to a buildup of financial vulnerabilities in advanced and emerging market economies alike. Inward-looking policies, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in some countries also pose downside risks.
The current cyclical upswing provides an ideal opportunity for reforms. Shared priorities across all economies include implementing structural reforms to boost potential output and making growth more inclusive. In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative. Weak inflation suggests that slack remains in many advanced economies and monetary policy should continue to remain accommodative. However, the improved growth momentum means that fiscal policy should increasingly be designed with an eye on medium-term goals鈥攅nsuring fiscal sustainability and bolstering potential output. Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery.
The Global Recovery Has Strengthened


The cyclical upswing underway since mid-2016 has continued to strengthen. Some 120 economies, accounting for three quarters of world GDP, have seen a pickup in growth in year-on-year terms in 2017, the broadest synchronized global growth upsurge since 2010. Among advanced economies, growth in the third quarter of 2017 was higher than projected in the fall, notably in Germany, Japan, Korea, and the United States. Key emerging market and developing economies, including Brazil, China, and South Africa, also posted third-quarter growth stronger than the fall forecasts. High-frequency hard data and sentiment indicators point to a continuation of strong momentum in the fourth quarter. World trade has grown strongly in recent months, supported by a pickup in investment, particularly among advanced economies, and increased manufacturing output in Asia in the run up to the launch of new smartphone models. Purchasing managers鈥?indices indicate firm manufacturing activity ahead, consistent with strong consumer confidence pointing to healthy final demand.


Commodities and inflation. An improving global growth outlook, weather events in the United States, the extension of the OPEC+ agreement to limit oil production, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have supported crude oil prices. These have risen by about 20 percent between August 2017 (the reference period for the October 2017 WEO) and mid-December 2017 (the reference period for the January 2018 WEO Update), to over $60 per barrel, with some further increase as of early January 2018. Markets expect prices to gradually decline over the next 4鈥? years鈥攁s of mid-December, medium-term price futures stood at about $54 per barrel, modestly higher than in August. The increase in fuel prices raised headline inflation in advanced economies, but wage and core-price inflation remain weak. Among emerging market economies, headline and core inflation have ticked up slightly in recent months after declining earlier in 2017.


Bond and equity markets. Market expectations of the path of U.S. Federal Reserve policy rates have shifted up since August, reflecting the well鈥慳nticipated December rate hike, but they continue to price in a gradual increase over 2018 and 2019. The Bank of England raised its policy rate for the first time since 2008 in view of diminishing slack in the economy and above鈥憈arget inflation driven by the past sterling depreciation; the European Central Bank announced tha

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